U of I ag forecasts very close to USDA data

By Sean Ellis

Idaho Farm Bureau Federation

POCATELLO – In January, University of Idaho agricultural economists told legislators they estimated Idaho’s 22,800 farms and ranches brought in a total of $11.157 billion in gross farm revenue in 2023.

On Sept. 5, USDA released official data showing how much farm revenue each state brought in last year. It showed Idaho’s ag producers brought in $11.036 billion in gross farm revenue.

That means the economists’ estimate came within 1 percent of the official USDA numbers, and their calculations were made a full eight months before the USDA data was calculated.

Each January, UI economists provide members of the Idaho Legislature’s Joint Legislative Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee with an estimate of how Idaho agriculture fared the previous year.

Because agriculture is so important to Idaho, legislators use that estimate to help them forecast how much revenue the state will take in that fiscal year, and that revenue estimate in turn is used during the legislative session to set state budgets.

Sen. Van Burtenshaw, a member of the committee, said the forecasts the committee gets from various sources are really significant because they help legislators determine the amount of revenue to include in the state budget.

He was happy to hear the U of I forecast was so close.

“The more accurate they are, the more precise we can be in the budgeting process,” he said.

Especially in recent years, the annual January estimates by U of I agricultural economists on how the state’s farming industry fared have closely matched USDA’s official numbers.

The estimates are included in U of I’s annual, The Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture report.

Two Januaries ago, the U of I economists estimated Idaho’s farmers and ranchers brought in $11.041 billion in total revenue in 2022, while the official USDA data for that year showed $11.283 billion, a difference of 2.19 percent.

Three years ago, the economists estimated Idaho’s farmers and ranchers brought in $8.882 billion in total revenue in 2021, while the official USDA data for that year showed $8.733 billion, a difference of 1.68 percent.

U of I Agricultural Economist Brett Wilder, one of the authors of the report, said it’s something legislators and the industry ask for.

Every three years, a separate U of I report shows the total impact agriculture has on the state economy.

“Between the two, it gives state and county officials tools they can use to make important decisions,” Wilder said.

As an example of how close this year’s estimate was, the ag economists estimated that the state’s wheat farmers brought in a total of $685 million in 2023, while the USDA data shows $678 million, a difference of 1 percent.

And, the economists estimated that the state’s milk farmers brought in a total of $3.5 billion in 2023, while the USDA data shows $3.46 billion, a difference of 1.22 percent.

The Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture report also estimates total net farm income – which amounts to a farmer’s paycheck – but that is a finer art and can bounce around from year to year.

Wilder says the gross revenue amount is important because it gives lawmakers a pretty good idea of what agriculture’s impact on the state’s economy will be in the coming year.

That money that is spent by farmers and ranchers, in turn, helps underpin the overall economy, especially in rural areas that are highly dependent on agriculture, he says.