Carry over wheat down 3.9%

Boise— The U.S. Department of Agriculture in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand report, projects that the carryover of all US wheat this coming June at 974 million bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 3.9%, 

“Worldwide stocks of wheat are getting worked down and that means a bullish market toward spring,” said Blaine Jacobson of the Idaho Wheat Commission.

Jacobson says that this is the lowest carryover in 5 years and the numbers are based on projected lower imports and higher exports for next year.

“We’re not going to import much and we expect to export more because of worldwide shortages of wheat and grain,” said Jacobson.

Import projections are 105 million bushels, the lowest in 9 years. Exports are forecast at 975 million bu, up 25 million bushels in November.

“This is important because it puts more strength under our wheat prices. Because of that, exports from Idaho and the Pacific Northwest should be stronger. Simply put, there were production problems in the midwest, because of the late start we have a smaller crop,” said Jacobson.

Many Idaho growers are now holding onto wheat because prices are still low, that could change in the coming weeks.

“Starting in February and heading into April we could see the best pricing if you look at years past. Those dates always give the best pricing. But a word of caution here, conditions may vary and that could still affect the market,” said Jacobson.

Jacobson says that Idaho farmers have plenty of storage this year, so that’s not a problem.  The biggest problem this harvest season has been low market prices. The average price of wheat paid to farmers in 2019 was $4.55 a bushel, down 5¢ and down 61¢ in 2018.  

But the bright spot from this USDA report is that the new projections could see a steady climb in prices this winter.